Can Money Buy the Senate? Follow the 2026 Midterm Money

Yes, among the midterm cycles we track. Through October 24, candidates in 551 House and Senate races have reported $4.20B in receipts, and outside groups have spent another $2.68B: $6.88B in all. That is already 19% more than the whole 2022 cycle ($5.79B) and 70% more than 2018 ($4.06B), with ten days of spending and the post-election filings still to come.

Candidate money barely moved: $4.20B against $4.14B in 2022. The growth is almost all outside money.

Outside spending, the independent expenditures made by super PACs, party committees and other groups, is up 62% on 2022 and 188% on 2018. Its share of all midterm money has gone from 23% to 28% to 39%.

Outside spending is not the same as "dark money". Super PACs must disclose their donors to the FEC; dark money refers to groups, such as some nonprofits, that spend on politics without naming theirs. The figures here are the disclosed independent expenditures reported to the FEC. Search interest in "dark money" still runs above "super PAC" and "campaign finance" on Google, and interest in "midterm elections" hit its 90-day peak on October 20.

Outside groups spent $760M opposing Democratic candidates and $900M opposing Republicans, against $488M and $467M supporting them. For both parties, roughly 6 in every 10 outside dollars pay for messages against a candidate.

On candidates' own fundraising, Democrats lead: $2.49B raised against $1.63B for Republicans, a wider gap than 2022 ($2.20B vs $1.89B). Outside money narrows that picture, which is why counting only candidate fundraising understates where the money is.

Outside money concentrates where control of the Senate is decided. The 53 Senate races have drawn $1.58B of outside spending, about $29.8M per race, against about $2.2M per House race. Senate outside spending is now almost equal to what the Senate candidates themselves raised ($1.62B).

The most-targeted candidates are all in Senate races: Jon Husted (R, Ohio), James Talarico (D, Texas), Ken Paxton (R, Texas), Abdul El-Sayed (D, Michigan) and Sherrod Brown (D, Ohio) each drew more than $100M in outside money for and against them.

In three of the most-searched Senate races, outside groups outspend the candidates themselves.

• Texas: $329M outside vs $212M raised by candidates. Talarico is the top fundraiser of the cycle at $146.3M; outside groups spent $151.4M against him and $22.5M for him. Paxton has raised $22.3M and drawn $38.5M in support and $86.7M in opposition.
• Ohio: $283M outside, nearly three times the $97M the candidates raised. Husted has raised $19.9M; outside groups spent $65.0M supporting him and $111.6M against him. Brown has raised $68.4M and drawn $92.6M in opposition.
• Alaska: $75M outside vs $50M from candidates, in a state where 96% of itemized donations came from outside the state.

Elsewhere, Jon Ossoff (D, Georgia) is the second-biggest fundraiser at $115.9M.

In small states with competitive races, most of the money comes from somewhere else: 96% in Alaska, 92% in Vermont, 79% in Delaware and 77% in Maine. The single largest state-to-state flow is donors in California giving to races in Alaska, $14.1M.

By region, the South gave the most, $3.37B so far (up 10% on 2022), while the West, Northeast and Midwest are each 12% to 17% below their full 2022 totals with the cycle not yet finished. Washington, DC ($778M) and New York ($506M) are the top donor cities.

The biggest line in campaign budgets is raising more money: $647M on fundraising, ahead of $554M on TV and radio, $484M on payroll and staff and $331M on digital ads. Consulting ($280M), direct mail ($219M) and polling ($170M) follow.

Large donors are the main funders of super PACs. Americans for Tax Fairness (via Fortune, July 27, 2026, using FEC data through March 1) counted more than $433M from billionaires, about 80% to Republicans; the 50 biggest-spending billionaire families gave $344.3M, about 79% to Republicans and conservative groups. It counted about $71M from Elon Musk (at least $90M by the end of June, per Fortune) and more than $55M from Jeff Yass. The Washington Post (via Fortune) put George and Alex Soros at roughly $102.8M, mostly through Democracy PAC, and found Republican-leaning donors gave $880M in the first half of 2026 against $290M from Democratic-leaning donors.

Can everything be bought? What the research says

The evidence cuts both ways. OpenSecrets (via Fortune) finds the bigger-spending House candidate wins more than 90% of the time, and roughly 8 in 10 Senate contests. But that record is inflated by lopsided races, where safe incumbents outspend token challengers. Strategists in both parties argue money signals a campaign's viability more than it causes the win, and Republicans were outraised in marquee races in 2020, 2022 and 2024 and still won some of them. Money buys reach; whether it buys outcomes is still contested.

FinzData stores no individual donor names; the donor figures in this section are those of the sources named.