Research topic
Volatility
2 FinzData report(s) on Volatility.
2026 Midterm Money Ad Spend & Markets
FinzData PoliSpend briefing as of Oct 22 2026 projects $11.6B in 2026 midterm ad spend, up 26% vs 2022. Outside money pace is $2.00B, +49% vs same point 2022 and nearly triple 2018. Candidate receipts show House D $1.4B vs R $1.1B and Senate D $974M vs R $483M. Prediction markets price Democrats 65% Senate, 91% House. S&P 500 is +12.5% YTD through October vs +0.8% average midterm year, with all 20 midterms since 1946 higher 12 months after Election Day, avg +14.3%.
Elections and political spendingEquity strategy and factorsSPY Short-Gamma vs Long-Gamma Regimes, 2019-2026
After 1,761 SPY sessions since October 2019, next-day moves averaged 1.06% after short-gamma closes vs 0.54% after long gamma, with next-5-day realized volatility 19.5% vs 11.0%.
Options, gamma and GEXQuant models and market regimesEquity strategy and factorsRelated searches
- how much is being spent on 2026 midterm ads
- who is spending the most outside money in 2026 midterms
- what is projected political ad spend for 2026
- s&p 500 performance 12 months after midterm elections
- are democrats out raising republicans in 2026
- which states have the most political ad spending 2026
- how much outside money is in 2026 midterms vs 2022
- crypto and ai political donations 2026
- actblue vs winred receipts 2026
- what are prediction market odds for senate and house 2026
- top super pacs spending 2026 midterms
- midterm year stock market average return
- what scenarios for congress after 2026 election
- how much did elon musk donate to 2026 midterms
- which house races have highest outside spending 2026
- what does short gamma mean for spy
- why are spy moves larger after short gamma
- will spy move more after short gamma close
- how to calculate dealer gamma for spy
- is spy gamma predictive of direction